According to a recent analysis, Standard Chartered Bank's digital asset research team has expressed strong optimism regarding Bitcoin's price trajectory for the second half of 2025. The primary drivers highlighted include sustained corporate buying and robust inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated in a mid-week research note that Bitcoin is expected to achieve a new all-time high of $135,000 by the end of the third quarter. Furthermore, he anticipates the cryptocurrency surpassing the $200,000 mark by the end of the year.
Kendrick noted, “We believe Bitcoin has broken free from its historical pattern of experiencing a price decline approximately 18 months after a ‘halving’ event, thanks to increased investment inflows.” He added that if Bitcoin were to follow previous post-halving cycles, a price correction could typically be expected around September or October 2025.
Could the Bitcoin Halving Cycle Pattern Be Broken?
Kendrick’s analysis delves into the potential impact of the Bitcoin halving cycle. The halving, which occurs roughly every four years, reduces the block reward granted to miners by half. Historically, these events have been associated with significant price rallies followed by periods of correction.
In the past two cycles, Bitcoin began to decline roughly 18 months after each halving. However, Kendrick suggests that the 2024 halving may lead to a different outcome due to the emergence of new market dynamics, such as ETF demand and corporate treasury purchases.
He wrote, “We expect prices to resume their upward trend amid continued strong ETF inflows and corporate Bitcoin reserve buying,” emphasizing that these driving factors were not present in previous cycles.
That said, Standard Chartered does not rule out the possibility of some price volatility between the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4. This anticipated fluctuation stems from lingering market concerns about a potential repeat of the historical post-halving correction.
Understanding Bitcoin Halving Events
A Bitcoin halving is a scheduled event written into the Bitcoin protocol that cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half. This mechanism controls the supply of new Bitcoins, making it a deflationary asset. Historically, reduced supply issuance has led to bullish market conditions, though often followed by a cooling-off period.
The Role of ETFs and Institutional Demand
The approval and subsequent success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in various markets have opened the floodgates for institutional investment. These financial products provide a regulated and accessible means for both individual and institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset.
The constant demand from ETFs, coupled with public companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets as a treasury reserve asset, creates a new type of buy-side pressure that did not exist in previous market cycles. This fundamental shift is a key reason analysts are predicting a deviation from historical price patterns.
For those looking to understand the scale of this institutional movement, recent reports indicate that corporate buying has even outpaced ETF purchases in the first half of the year. 👉 Explore more institutional investment strategies
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Bitcoin halving?
A Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that reduces the reward for mining new blocks by 50%. It occurs approximately every four years and is designed to control Bitcoin's inflation rate by slowing down the issuance of new coins.
Why are analysts predicting a price increase after the 2024 halving?
Analysts point to new sources of demand, primarily from Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury purchases, that were absent after previous halvings. This sustained buying pressure is expected to counteract historical trends of post-halving price corrections.
What is the significance of Bitcoin reaching $135,000?
A price of $135,000 would represent a new all-time high for Bitcoin, significantly exceeding its previous peak. This projection is based on supply constraints from the halving and potent new demand from institutional investors.
Could Bitcoin still experience a price drop in late 2025?
While the overall outlook is bullish, analysts acknowledge the market might experience volatility due to psychological factors. Traders aware of the historical 18-month correction pattern may act cautiously, potentially causing short-term price swings.
How do Bitcoin ETFs affect the price?
Bitcoin ETFs create constant demand because they must purchase actual Bitcoin to back the shares they issue to investors. Large, consistent inflows into these funds reduce available supply on the market, which can drive up the price.
What is meant by 'corporate Bitcoin reserve buying'?
This refers to publicly traded companies purchasing and holding Bitcoin on their corporate balance sheets as a reserve asset, similar to holding cash or gold. This practice legitimizes Bitcoin as a store of value and creates a powerful, long-term demand source.