Bitcoin's bull market has stalled noticeably. Despite significant spot ETF inflows, growing stablecoin market capitalizations, and favorable regulatory updates in the U.S., the leading cryptocurrency continues to trade within a narrow range. It has fluctuated between $100,000 and $110,000 for a record 42 consecutive days.
This prolonged period of sideways movement raises a critical question: who is selling Bitcoin and counterbalancing the substantial ETF-driven demand, especially amid growing concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook?
The Current Market Equilibrium
Alexander Blume, CEO of SEC-registered investment adviser Two Prime, suggests Bitcoin is experiencing a unique shift in its participant base. The market is transitioning from being driven by speculative buyers to being supported by long-term investors.
"Amidst the recent geopolitical turmoil, it makes sense that speculators and leverage traders are taking risk off the table. At the same time, new long-term investors are buying the dip," Blume explained. This dynamic has created a temporary equilibrium between selling and buying pressure, leading to the current price consolidation.
Blockchain analytics from Glassnode support this observation. Wallets holding coins for less than a year have recently increased their profit-taking activities. On a recent Monday, these short-term holders were responsible for 83% of all realized profits in the market. Specifically, wallets holding coins for six to 12 months alone contributed $904 million in selling pressure, marking the second-highest total year-to-date.
This selling by short-term holders follows an even more aggressive profit-taking phase by long-term holders in May and early June. Glassnode data shows that wallets holding coins for over 12 months realized a peak profit of $1.2 billion last week, though that figure has since dropped to $324 million.
As Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, notes: "Long-term OG investors continue to sell into the steady ETF-driven demand, effectively absorbing inflows and keeping price action in check. This dynamic has led to a compression in volatility, but a breakout is inevitable."
Miner Selling Pressure
Bitcoin miners have also contributed to the selling pressure. Data from IntoTheBlock indicates that the total balance held in miner wallets has declined from approximately 1.94 million BTC at the end of May to around 1.91 million BTC. This suggests miners sold roughly 30,000 BTC over a 20-day period.
Miners must often sell a portion of their holdings to cover operational costs like electricity and hardware. However, it's important to note that miners' share of the total spot market volume is minimal and has recently hit its lowest level since 2022.
Philippe Bekhazi, CEO of crypto platform XBTO, contextualizes this activity: "Miners have to continually sell, and believe it or not, some long-term holders continue to sell gradually as they manage their USD liabilities. The key thing is volume - is it sold or bought on high volume? It is noise and speculative flows that can revert very quickly."
Stalled Accumulation and Alternative Opportunities
The substantial accumulation by both large ("whale") and small addresses observed during Bitcoin's rapid ascent from $75,000 in early April has stalled since the price breached the $100,000 mark.
Ben Lilly, co-founder of Jlabs Digital and Deploy.finance, points to the availability of attractive alternative strategies as a key reason for the slowdown. "Funding rates were rallying hard, and having delta-neutral positions earning 15-30% APY likely seemed attractive enough to de-risk on a directional basis," he noted.
Delta-neutral trading involves shorting perpetual futures while simultaneously buying the underlying asset in the spot market. This arbitrage strategy allows traders to profit from price differences between futures and spot prices without taking a directional bet on the market.
Jimmy Yang, co-founder of Orbit Markets, adds that Bitcoin's maturation into a more stable asset class means it may no longer deliver the exponential returns some investors seek. This has prompted a strategic shift in portfolio allocation.
"While the directional upside remains, investors can no longer expect 10x or 100x returns in a short period. As a result, we’ve seen some long-term holders begin to divest a portion of their BTC holdings to diversify into other asset classes such as equities, gold, and private placements — a move that makes sense from a portfolio allocation perspective," Yang stated.
What's Next for Bitcoin's Price?
The near-term outlook for Bitcoin appears to be one of continued correlation with traditional equities and broader risk sentiment. Both asset classes are trading near all-time highs, and a breakout in equities could likely pull Bitcoin higher.
"With the summer lull setting in, market activity is expected to remain subdued in the near term," Yang predicted.
Blume from Two Prime offers a tempered perspective, noting that a cooldown is natural after such a rapid price appreciation. "It’s also to keep in mind that Bitcoin rallied from 78k less than two months ago, so I’d expect a cool off anyway. It’s telling that the dips in price are quite shallow and are a sign of strength for the next leg up," he said.
From a technical analysis standpoint, Markus Thielen identifies key levels to watch: $102,000 on the downside and $106,000 on the upside. A sustained break above or below these levels could signal the next major price movement. For those looking to track these levels in real-time, you can view real-time analysis tools for deeper market insights.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has Bitcoin's price been stuck around $100,000?
The price has been range-bound due to a balance between selling pressure from short-term traders and long-term holders taking profits and consistent buying from new long-term investors and ETF inflows. This has created an equilibrium in the market.
Who is selling their Bitcoin at these prices?
Primary sellers include short-term holders capitalizing on profits, long-term "OG" investors gradually divesting, and miners selling to cover operational costs. Data shows significant realized profits from both cohorts over the past month.
What are 'delta-neutral' trades mentioned in the article?
Delta-neutral is an arbitrage strategy where a trader shorts perpetual futures contracts while simultaneously buying the equivalent amount of the asset on the spot market. This allows them to profit from the funding rate differential between the two markets without being exposed to the asset's price direction.
Will Bitcoin break out of this range soon?
Analysts believe a breakout is inevitable due to compressed volatility, though the timing is uncertain. The market is currently closely tied to traditional equity markets and broader risk sentiment. A breakout in stocks could be the catalyst for Bitcoin's next major move.
Is miner selling a major factor in the price staying down?
While miners have been selling, their contribution to the total spot market volume is currently very small—at multi-year lows. Therefore, their impact on the overall price is considered minimal compared to the selling from other investor groups.
Are long-term investors still bullish on Bitcoin?
Yes, the behavior indicates a maturing market. Long-term investors are not selling en masse but are instead managing their portfolios by taking some profits and diversifying. The fact that price dips remain shallow is often viewed as a sign of underlying strength and long-term confidence. To explore more investment strategies for a diversified portfolio, many are turning to advanced market analysis.