Binance Launchpad has recently faced mixed reviews, yet the community's sentiment of "never skimp on education" highlights the warmth and positive opportunities it continues to offer. By examining historical data from 2021 to the present, we can objectively evaluate Launchpad’s current returns, understand why some perceive recent launches as "lackluster," and compare BNB’s yield against ETH staking returns.
Key Metrics Explained
- First-Day Gain: The percentage increase in token price on the first UTC day compared to its IDO price.
- All-Time High Gain: The highest historical price gain compared to the IDO price.
- BNB Denominated First-Day Return: The amount of BNB earned by selling tokens on day one per 1 BNB used.
- BNB Denominated All-Time High Return: The maximum BNB earned by selling tokens at their peak per 1 BNB used.
Evaluating Historical Returns
Based on median values across all projects, first-day gains reached 12.6x, while all-time high gains hit 25.7x. The BNB denominated first-day return stood at 0.015, and the all-time high return was 0.031.
Notably, the three most recent tokens performed above median levels. Their median first-day gain was 24.4x—1.9 times the historical median—and all-time high gains were 1.4 times higher. BNB-based returns were 1.5x and 1.3x for first-day and all-time high, respectively. This indicates that projects launched during the bear market have been more profitable than many during the bull market.
Current policies are also favorable for arbitrage seekers. Recent projects have consistently delivered around 2% in BNB-denominated returns. If future Launchpad terms remain similar, users can expect stable returns through strategies like spot buying with contract shorting or borrowing BNB via lending platforms.
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Why Do Returns Feel "Lackluster"?
The perception of diminished returns likely stems from the absence of breakout successes. In 2021-2022, tokens like SFP and GMT achieved returns of several hundred times. Holding these tokens could offset ten average performers. Nearly a year has passed since GMT, and no project has matched those returns.
A single standout project leaves a stronger impression than multiple above-average ones. For example, GMT’s all-time high return was 0.46 BNB per 1 BNB invested, while SFP returned 1.56 BNB. These outliers explain the community’s high expectations. Recent returns of 0.0X seem modest in comparison.
Interestingly, SFP and GMT had modest first-day gains of only 12x—half of HOOK or EDU’s. Given current market conditions and reduced speculative activity, managing expectations is prudent.
Long-Term BNB Holding Returns
BNB Launchpad annualized returns can be compared to ETH staking yields. Since 2021, the total BNB-denominated return for selling on day one is 36%, equivalent to 14% annualized—slightly higher than ETH staking over the same period.
Including Launchpool farming gains, the total BNB return reaches 52%, or 21% annualized—more than double ETH’s staking yield. Even during the bear market, BNB returns were around 9.5%, compared to ETH’s 6% post-Merge APR including MEV rewards.
In a bull market, ETH staking yields may benefit from MEV revenue, while BNB Launchpad could see increased frequency and higher gains. However, ETH’s current staking rate remains low, potentially diluting returns as more ETH is staked. Launchpad allocations have remained steady at around $10M regardless of market conditions. With the potential for outsized returns, BNB offers greater upside elasticity.
Both BNB and ETH implement token burns, but BNB’s burn rate is significantly faster. This deflationary pressure is reflected in price appreciation. Since 2021, BNB/ETH has largely trended sideways, making direct yield comparisons valid.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Binance Launchpad?
Binance Launchpad is a token launch platform that allows users to invest in new projects using BNB. It offers early access to innovative tokens through subscription-based models.
How is BNB’s yield compared to ETH staking?
Historically, BNB Launchpad returns have outperformed ETH staking. Annualized BNB returns including Launchpool reach 21%, while ETH staking yields approximately 6-8% including MEV rewards.
Why do some launches feel less profitable now?
Recent projects lack extreme outliers like SFP or GMT, which achieved returns of over 100x. While recent median returns are solid, they don’t match past exceptions, influencing perception.
Can beginners participate in Launchpad?
Yes, but users should understand subscription requirements, holding periods, and market risks. It’s essential to research each project and consider stable strategies like arbitrage.
What risks are involved?
Risks include token volatility, project failure, and market cycles. Returns aren’t guaranteed, and past performance doesn’t indicate future results.
How does Launchpool complement Launchpad?
Launchpool allows users to farm new tokens by staking BNB or other assets, providing additional yield streams alongside Launchpad allocations.
Conclusion
Recent Launchpad projects have delivered above-median returns, with metrics 1.3-1.9 times historical averages. Current BNB-denominated returns stabilize around 2%, suitable for arbitrage.
The absence of mega-performers like SFP or GMT—which returned up to 1.5 BNB per BNB invested—has dampened sentiment. Compared to ETH staking, BNB’s annualized yield of 9.5% in the bear market is 1.5 times higher. During bull markets, BNB’s returns historically doubled ETH’s, suggesting greater elasticity.
Future returns will depend on use cases adoption. While ETH L2 scaling progresses, BNB Chain’s development remains crucial for maintaining competitive yields. Investors should monitor ecosystem growth rather than relying solely on historical data.