Since Bitcoin’s fourth halving on April 20, its price has entered a phase of volatility, briefly dropping to around $56,500 on May 1 and currently hovering near $62,800. This event, along with the anticipated "Runes hype," did not inject new momentum into Bitcoin’s valuation. As market opinions diverge, this article compiles insights from various institutions and experts on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory.
Bullish Outlook: Optimism Dominates Long-Term Forecasts
SkyBridge Capital: Bitcoin to Surpass Gold’s Market Cap
On April 18, Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, asserted in a CNBC interview that Bitcoin’s market capitalization will eventually exceed that of gold, which stands at $16 trillion. He emphasized Bitcoin’s uniqueness as a superior asset in human history and noted that while the gap is significant, regulatory acceptance will gradually narrow it.
Bitwise: Strong Confidence in Price Appreciation
Bitwise Asset Management reaffirmed its bullish stance on April 23, predicting exceptional performance for Bitcoin over the next 12 months. Researcher Ryan Rasmussen highlighted historical patterns where pre- and post-halving years often yield the best returns in multi-year cycles. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan projected reduced volatility, increased ETF inflows, and central bank participation, targeting a price of at least $250,000 by the next halving in 2028. CEO Hunter Horsley anticipated wealth management firms boosting their Bitcoin ETF holdings.
Jan3 CEO: $1 Million Bitcoin Possible
Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, suggested on April 26 that the combination of the halving and surging ETF demand could trigger an "Omega candle" pattern, potentially propelling Bitcoin to $1 million.
Luxor’s Q1 Report: Recovery Within Five Months
Luxor’s Q1 2024 report, released on May 2, indicated that Bitcoin’s price might recover within five months based on hash rate futures data, noting that prices had likely bottomed short-term. The hash price hit a record low of $44.43/PH/day on May 1.
TD Cowen: May Rally Potential
TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza stated on May 7 that Bitcoin could see significant upside in May, driven by institutional filings due by May 15 and potential rejection of Ethereum ETFs, which might redirect capital to Bitcoin.
PlanB: $500,000 by 2028
Analyst PlanB shared on X that an updated S2F model predicts Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2028 and $4 million by 2032, citing the 2020-2024 cycle’s average price of $34,000 as reasonable given earlier predictions.
Pantera Capital: $117,000 by August 2025
Pantera Capital’s May 9 forecast projected Bitcoin hitting $117,000 by August 2025, based on halving cycle analysis. The firm noted similarities in pre- and post-halving rally durations, though the message was later removed from their website.
Jack Dorsey: $1 Million by 2030
Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey expressed on May 9 that Bitcoin could reach at least $1 million by 2030, emphasizing the collaborative nature of its ecosystem over mere price speculation.
QCP Capital: Political and Macro Factors
QCP Capital’s May 10 analysis pointed to the U.S. election and crypto-friendly policies from candidates like Trump as potential bullish drivers. They also noted improved risk reversals, indicating investor optimism.
Metaplanet: Bitcoin as Strategic Reserve
Japanese firm Metaplanet announced on May 13 its shift to Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset to counter economic pressures in Japan, purchasing $6.25 million worth in April.
Bearish Perspectives: Caution and Corrections
Veteran Trader: Drop to $30,000 or Lower
Peter Brandt, a seasoned trader, warned on April 26 that Bitcoin might have peaked at $73,835 and could correct to $30,000 or even 2021 lows due to "exponential decay," which he argued could be beneficial long-term.
Standard Chartered: Risk of Decline to $50,000
Standard Chartered suggested on May 1 that Bitcoin might fall to $50,000-$52,000, citing ETF outflows and poor reception of Hong Kong ETFs. Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick highlighted liquidation risks as many ETF positions are underwater.
10x Research: Persistent Post-Halving Bearishness
10x Research maintained a bearish outlook, noting stagnant stablecoin inflows and reduced leverage in futures markets. They also referenced DTCC’s policy excluding crypto ETFs as collateral, reinforcing downward trends.
Neutral Stance: Consolidation and Patience
Arthur Hayes: Range-Bound Until August
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted on May 2 that Bitcoin would fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000 until August, buoyed by increased liquidity from Fed policies and Treasury actions. He expected a slow recovery after a potential bottom at $58,600.
Conclusion: Long-Term Bullish, Short-Term Uncertainty
Synthesizing these views, key takeaways emerge:
- Long-term optimism remains strong among institutions and experts.
- Short-term price movements will hinge on factors like Fed rate decisions, U.S. elections, and Ethereum ETF outcomes.
- Between May and August, Bitcoin may consolidate and gradually base-build before entering the next phase.
As the market digests the halving and ETF developments, patience is advised. For ongoing updates, consider monitoring trusted analysis sources. 👉 Explore real-time market insights
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin halving?
Bitcoin halving is an event that reduces the block reward miners receive by half, occurring approximately every four years. It controls inflation and historically influences price trends due to reduced supply issuance.
How do ETFs affect Bitcoin’s price?
ETFs increase accessibility for institutional investors, potentially driving demand. Positive ETF news often boosts prices, while outflows or regulatory hurdles can pressure them downward.
Why is volatility expected post-halving?
Post-halving volatility stems from market adjustments to new supply dynamics, macroeconomic factors, and investor sentiment shifts. Historical patterns show periods of consolidation before major moves.
What are key indicators to watch?
Monitor ETF flows, regulatory developments, macroeconomic policies, and on-chain metrics like hash rate and investor activity to gauge market direction.
How long do halving effects take to manifest?
While some effects are immediate, full price impacts often unfold over months or years as market dynamics adapt to new supply conditions.
Should short-term traders be cautious?
Yes, due to potential heightened volatility and unpredictable news-driven moves, risk management is crucial for short-term strategies.