The 2024 Bitcoin bull run has been fueled by the approval of spot ETFs and a powerful market narrative shift toward its "digital gold" value proposition. Massive institutional inflows have followed, with products like BlackRock's IBIT becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history, amassing over $52 billion in assets under management.
Two major macro factors are now reinforcing bullish expectations. A potential Trump administration could bring pro-crypto policies, regulatory clarity, and even state Bitcoin reserves. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle may boost risk-on sentiment, driving capital toward high-growth assets like cryptocurrency.
Together, these forces could sustain Bitcoin's momentum well into the first half of 2025—and possibly beyond.
The 2024 Bitcoin Rally: A Strong Start
Bitcoin started 2024 with a landmark achievement: the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. By November, it reached a new all-time high, surpassing $80,000 per coin. This rise occurred despite selling pressure from sources like the German government’s Bitcoin sales and Mt. Gox repayments.
With the fourth Bitcoin halving now complete, many are asking: can the current bull run continue?
The Push Toward $100,000: The "Digital Gold" Narrative Strengthens
Data from Singapore-based crypto research firm 10x Research indicates that after reaching a six-month high, Bitcoin’s median return over the following three months has historically been around 40%.
If Bitcoin repeats this pattern, it could reach $100,000 by January 2025.
Market narrative has also shifted. Investor focus has moved away from decentralized finance (DeFi) applications toward Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold”—a store of value and hedge against inflation, thanks to its capped supply and predictable issuance.
Gold vs. Digital Gold
In 2024, institutional investors have increasingly embraced this narrative, gaining Bitcoin exposure primarily through spot ETFs.
IBIT’s Record Growth: Institutional Money Flows into Bitcoin ETFs
Since their launch in January 2024, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen extraordinary demand.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reached $1 billion in assets under management (AUM) in just four days, making it the fastest-growing ETF in history. According to data from Coinglass, IBIT’s AUM had grown to over $17 billion by the end of October 2024, while the total AUM for all U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs surpassed $52 billion.
Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track to hold over one million BTC, eventually surpassing even Satoshi Nakamoto as the largest Bitcoin holder.
Institutional adoption is broadening. The State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) and South Korea’s National Pension Service are among the major institutions now allocating to Bitcoin via ETFs.
A report from data firm Ecoinometrics in late October highlighted: “Over the past year, Bitcoin’s returns have outperformed most major assets, trailing only a few stocks like Nvidia. While gold still leads in risk-adjusted returns, Bitcoin shows strong performance on both fronts.”
The report added: “This rally is primarily supported by steady ETF inflows and does not yet appear overextended. The market still has room to reach new highs in the next three months.”
How Long Can the Bull Market Continue? Two Key Factors
Two major macroeconomic factors are likely to determine the sustainability of the current Bitcoin bull market: the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
1. U.S. Presidential Election: A Trump Win Could Boost Crypto
In recent months, former President Donald Trump has adopted a strongly pro-crypto stance. He has publicly promised to support digital asset innovation and even expressed a desire to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.”
His proposed policies include removing current SEC Chair Gary Gensler, offering subsidies to Bitcoin mining operations, and even considering adding Bitcoin to U.S. strategic reserves. These aren’t just promises—Trump has also accepted cryptocurrency donations for his campaign, launched several NFT collections, and announced plans for a decentralized finance platform called “World Liberty Financial.”
Critically, a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress could accelerate the passage of pro-crypto legislation, providing regulatory certainty the industry has long sought.
👉 Explore more strategies on regulatory trends
2. Interest Rate Cuts: Fuel for Risk Assets, but Will Trump Bring Inflation?
After two years of aggressive interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024. Lower interest rates generally benefit risk assets by reducing borrowing costs for businesses and making speculative investments more attractive relative to bonds.
However, some market observers worry that Trump’s proposed policies—including tax cuts, new tariffs, and immigration restrictions—could reignite inflation.
Citing analysis from multiple experts in Business Weekly, a Trump victory is unlikely to alter the Fed’s broader direction on rate cuts. The inflationary impact of Trump’s policies remains uncertain and would take time to materialize. Historically, the dollar has tended to weaken under Republican administrations, and Trump himself has previously supported lower interest rates.
The combination of Trump’s pro-crypto agenda and the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy could extend the Bitcoin bull run into the first half of 2025 and potentially further.
Looking Back: Historical Bitcoin Bull Cycles
While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, Bitcoin’s history offers useful insights. In particular, each halving event has typically preceded a new bull market within the following 12–18 months.
Historically, Bitcoin doesn’t rally immediately after a halving. The market often enters a period of consolidation and heightened volatility before gathering momentum for the next major upward move.
After a halving, newly issued Bitcoin is initially held by miners. Since mining is capital-intensive, miners often sell portions of their BTC to cover operational costs, meaning the reduction in new supply isn’t immediately felt in the market.
Data from analytics firm Glassnode shows the following performance after each halving:
- First Halving (2012): Peak return of +5,315%, maximum drawdown of -85%
- Second Halving (2016): Peak return of +1,336%, maximum drawdown of -83%
- Third Halving (2020): Peak return of +569%, maximum drawdown of -77%
It’s worth noting that in past cycles, the halving has often occurred near the middle of the bull market. However, Glassnode also cautions that early cycles are very different from today’s mature market, with returns generally decreasing and drawdowns becoming less severe over time as institutional participation grows.
Looking Ahead: Expert Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2028
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: Bitcoin to Reach $250,000
In an April memo, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan made five predictions for the period leading up to the next Bitcoin halving in 2028:
- Bitcoin’s volatility will decrease by 50% due to institutional adoption via ETFs.
- Allocating more than 5% of a portfolio to Bitcoin will become the "new normal."
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs will see over $200 billion in net inflows.
- Central banks will begin adding Bitcoin to their reserve assets.
- Bitcoin’s price will surpass $250,000.
Coinshares Forecast: Bitcoin Could Hit $133,000
Crypto asset manager Coinshares built a valuation model based on Bitcoin’s core investment thesis and the role of savings as a primary driver of capital inflow.
The firm predicts that by 2028, more than 669 million people will hold Bitcoin. If each allocates just 1% of their gross national income (GNI) to Bitcoin, the market capitalization could grow tenfold.
Under this model, Coinshares conservatively estimates a Bitcoin price of $133,000 by 2028.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is driving the current Bitcoin bull market?
The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs has opened the door for massive institutional investment, reinforcing Bitcoin’s "digital gold" narrative. Macro factors like potential regulatory shifts under a new U.S. administration and a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle are also providing tailwinds.
How does the Bitcoin halving affect the price?
The halving reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, gradually decreasing available supply. Historically, this scarcity effect has led to significant price increases in the 12–18 months following the event, though past performance is not a guarantee.
Could political changes really impact Bitcoin’s price?
Yes. clear and supportive cryptocurrency regulations can increase institutional confidence and lead to greater adoption. Policies that encourage innovation or even state holding of Bitcoin could significantly impact demand and price.
What are the risks of investing in Bitcoin during a bull market?
Bull markets can be volatile, with large price swings. Investing near all-time highs carries the risk of sharp corrections. It’s essential to only invest what you can afford to lose and maintain a long-term perspective.
How can I start investing in Bitcoin?
Many investors use regulated exchanges or Bitcoin ETFs for exposure. 👉 Get advanced methods for portfolio allocation Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.
Is it too late to invest in Bitcoin during this cycle?
While Bitcoin has already seen significant gains, many analysts believe the current cycle is not yet over. However, market timing is extremely difficult. A disciplined, long-term investment strategy is generally more reliable than trying to chase short-term gains.
Conclusion
The current Bitcoin bull run combines strong institutional flows, favorable macro conditions, and a compelling long-term narrative. While experts offer optimistic predictions, it’s important to remember that cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile and unpredictable.
Always conduct thorough research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Even experienced investors can be challenged by sudden market shifts.
Whether you're a new or seasoned investor, continuing to educate yourself about market dynamics and risk management is essential for navigating the crypto space successfully.