The collectible toy market is experiencing a wave of rapid growth and intense speculation. From massive art installations drawing crowds to major corporate investments, the industry is buzzing with activity. Yet beneath the surface of success lies volatility, overvaluation, and fierce competition.
This article explores the dynamics of the collectible toy sector—its promising opportunities, underlying risks, and the strategic shifts brands are making to stay relevant in a fast-changing landscape.
The Current State of the Collectible Toy Market
The collectible toy market has captured global attention with high-profile successes and high-stakes investments. In one recent example, a giant capybara sculpture in a Bangkok shopping mall attracted over 10,000 visitors per day and generated significant revenue for its creator.
At the same time, major financial moves are shaping the industry. Wanda Group and Ruyi Holdings jointly invested ¥144 million in 52TOYS, marking a significant crossover between entertainment and collectible toys.
However, these successes are contrasted with sharp downturns. Following overproduction of the Labubu series, its resale value plummeted, and Bubble Mart’s stock price fell sharply, erasing billions in market capitalization. Early investors have begun cashing out, signaling caution despite public optimism.
This duality—between rapid growth and sudden decline—characterizes today’s collectible toy economy.
Overestimated Profits and the Rush to IPO
Market data indicates a surge in new companies entering the collectible toy space. In the first four months of 2025 alone, over 3,400 new businesses were registered. Industry forecasts suggest the broader toy market could double in value by 2029.
This expansion mirrors earlier trends in sectors like bubble tea—quick growth, intense investment, and a race to scale. However, the collectible toy market is even more concentrated, with a small number of players capturing most of the profits.
Despite Bubble Mart’s pioneering role since 2010, investor confidence wavered in previous years. It wasn't until the rise of character-based merchandise and emotional consumption in 2024 that the sector regained momentum. This shift fueled a wave of IPOs in 2025:
-布鲁可 (Bruoke) listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
-铜师傅 (Tongshifu) and 52TOYS submitted IPO applications.
- Top Toy, a subsidiary of Miniso, is reportedly preparing for a public offering.
Yet behind this rush lies shaky financial performance. 52TOYS, for example, reported nearly ¥200 million in losses over three years. Top Toy’s revenue remains significantly lower than industry leaders, despite aggressive retail expansion.
Many of these companies are driven by a fear of missing out—on trends, consumer interest, or investor attention. The market’s reliance on emotional demand makes it inherently volatile.
The Central Role of IP in Collectible Toys
Intellectual property isn’t just important in this industry—it’s everything. Companies that rely solely on retail distribution without developing unique IP face intense pressure and commodification.
Miniso, for instance, has leveraged its supply chain to launch nearly 3,000 new products each year, capturing over 80% of the licensed IP market. This dominance makes it difficult for smaller players to compete.
52TOYS’ recent financial disclosures highlight this challenge. Although its "Crayon Shin-chan" series contributed to 60% of its revenue, high licensing fees and sales-based royalties squeezed profit margins. Worse, competitors like Miniso and Bubble Mart have since launched their own products under the same IP, further diluting 52TOYS’ position.
The lesson is clear: without a strong owned-IP portfolio, companies remain vulnerable.
Successful IPs typically deliver emotional, social, or practical value. Lightweight IPs often gain traction through social media and memes before expanding into products. In contrast, many collectible toy companies reverse this process—creating products first and hoping they resonate emotionally.
This approach carries higher risk. Without narrative depth or cultural connection, even popular characters can quickly lose relevance.
Some companies are trying to change this. Bubble Mart has hired screenwriters and established an animation division to enrich its IPs. LINE FRIENDS offers another model—evolving from simple emoticons into a multi-platform content brand.
Yet these efforts are exceptions. The trend today is toward acquisition rather than organic growth. When a new IP like WAKUKU gains traction—thanks to celebrity endorsements and social media—it is often quickly acquired by larger firms.
This environment makes original IP development both risky and essential.
FAQ: Understanding Collectible Toys and Market Trends
What are collectible toys?
Collectible toys are limited-run figures or items, often sold in blind boxes, that carry cultural, aesthetic, or emotional value. They appeal to collectors and fans through unique designs, storytelling, or affiliation with popular franchises.
Why is intellectual property (IP) so important in this market?
IP provides differentiation, legal protection, and emotional connection. Companies without owned IP must license characters or concepts, which increases costs and reduces control over their product lines and brand identity.
How do collectible toy companies expand internationally?
Successful expansion relies on localizing products, partnering with regional influencers, and leveraging e-commerce platforms like TikTok Shop or SHEIN. Cultural adaptation and limited-edition releases help build relevance in new markets.
What are the biggest risks facing the industry?
Key risks include over-saturation, reliance on short-term trends, high licensing costs, and volatile consumer demand. Companies that fail to build durable IP or scale efficiently often struggle to sustain growth.
Can small brands compete with giants like Bubble Mart or Miniso?
Yes, through niche IP creation, direct community engagement, and strategic use of social media. However, competing on volume or price is increasingly difficult without large-scale manufacturing or distribution.
Is the collectible toy market still growing?
Yes, especially in overseas markets such as Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Global demand for character-driven products and entertainment-based merchandise continues to rise.
The Growing Importance of Global Markets
While domestic competition intensifies, many collectible toy brands are looking overseas for growth. Export data from Dongguan, a manufacturing hub, shows toy exports exceeding ¥12 billion in the first seven months of 2024, reaching over 100 countries.
Southeast Asia has been a primary focus since 2018, thanks to its young population, high social media engagement, and growing interest in pop culture. After initial overexpansion, brands are now adopting more sustainable strategies—localizing products, collaborating with regional artists, and building community through events and digital platforms.
Success stories are emerging. Heyone Black Play surpassed ¥100 million in retail sales in Southeast Asia, while Robotime and its sub-brands have built strong followings in Europe through DIY toy kits and community engagement.
The Middle East is also gaining attention. Despite assumptions about market size, concerts by K-pop groups like BTS and BLACKPINK have demonstrated strong demand for entertainment and merchandise. This suggests that cultural exports, not just traditional retail, can open new opportunities.
Global market projections are optimistic, with the worldwide collectible toy segment expected to reach $62 billion by 2030. Chinese companies are well-positioned to capture a significant share of this growth through creative IP and cross-border strategies.
For those looking to understand global consumer trends and market entry strategies, explore more strategies for tailored insights.
Conclusion
The collectible toy market is a fascinating blend of art, commerce, and emotion. Its rapid growth offers significant opportunities, but its dependence on trends and IP makes it inherently unstable.
Companies that succeed in the long term will likely be those that build authentic intellectual property, foster community, and adapt to global audiences. Whether through storytelling, digital innovation, or cross-cultural collaboration, the future of collectible toys lies in creating lasting value—not just momentary hype.